Qaeda seeks war, not refuge, in Yemen, Somalia

Reading this You have to wonder if Al Qaida are getting a little nervous over the fact that the Taliban is being smacked around by the Pakistani Military ! If OBL is still Alive , he has surely pooped himself over the last few weeks ,mainly because he realizes , he has no where to go !

the Daily Times
LONDON: Under pressure in his Pakistan enclaves, Osama Bin Laden is facing a familiar quandary: Where to go next? The answer is unlikely to be Yemen or Somalia, despite their new prominence as regional Al Qaeda sanctuaries.

US drone attacks and a looming army offensive against one of Al Qaeda’s main allies in the Tribal Areas have stirred speculation that Bin Laden’s men are seeking a less risky refuge for their anti-Western campaign.

Exposure: But simply leaving FATA could expose the world’s most wanted man and his entourage of planners and bodyguards to satellite detection and the curious gaze of a local population of uncertain loyalty.

“The moment that Al Qaeda has to leave FATA, that is the end of Al Qaeda as an organisation,” said Thomas Hegghammer, a research fellow at Harvard University.

Yemen was “a pretty good safe haven” for lower-level members of Al Qaeda provided the group did not get too strong and did not bring in the leadership. The presence of senior figures would provoke a tough security response from the government and the United States, he said.

The US has fired missiles at militants in Yemen and Somalia before, and would be widely expected to do so again if a substantial Al Qaeda influx were spotted in either country.

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